Precious Metals Analysis

The U.S. economy depends on consumers buying stuff. Persistent price inflation forced Americans to blow through their savings and then turn to credit cards to make ends meet. However, consumer borrowing has slowed significantly this year, indicating Americans may be maxing out the plastic.

Silver has taken us on a wild ride, nearly doubling in price this year. However, some analysts worry that silver is taking us down a path of disappointment. They base their bearish sentiment on history. After all, silver teased us with twin records in 1980 and 2011 before quickly selling off both times.

With gold trading solidly over $4,000 per ounce, mainstream banks have been scrambling to raise their 2026 price projections. Last week, Deutsche Bank joined the scramble, upping its average price forecast by 11 percent. Deutsche Bank now peg their forecast at a $4,450 average with a trading range between $3,950 and $4,950.

Domestic gold prices in India hit a record in October and outperformed the dollar price. At the end of the month, gold was up 63 percent on the year and 11 percent month-on-month in rupee terms. According to the World Gold Council, “The higher domestic gains are attributed to the 3.3 percent depreciation of the Indian rupee.”

After the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve embarked on nearly a decade of extraordinarily loose monetary policy. This not only incentivized the creation of a Debt Black Hole and introduced all kinds of malinvestments into the economy, but it also warped expectations.

As the Debt Black Hole continues to impact the economy, corporate bankruptcies are on pace to hit the highest level in 15 years. According to the latest data by S&P Global, 655 U.S. corporations had filed for bankruptcy through October. That compares to 687 for the entirety of 2024.

The Italian government needs money and wants to tap private gold holdings to get it. Many Italians own undocumented gold. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government has come up with a scheme to entice people to declare their gold holdings, have them appraised, and then pay a 12.5 percent tax on their value.

The S&P 500 to gold ratio has fallen to the lowest reading since the pandemic and is at a critical support level. This could signal more upside for the yellow metal. Stocks and gold have risen in tandem in 2025. The S&P 500 is up nearly 16 percent on the year, and up 38 percent since the April selloff sparked by tariff worries.

The U.S. economy depends on consumers buying stuff. Persistent price inflation forced Americans to blow through their savings and then turn to credit cards to make ends meet. Credit card spending has slowed significantly this year, indicating consumers may be maxing out the plastic.

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has officially added silver to its list of “critical minerals.” This could put further demand pressure on a metal already in short supply. It also increases the possibility of tariffs on silver. The USGS critical mineral list was established in 2017, and it guides federal strategy

Early this year, high premiums developed for COMEX bars in the U.S. thanks to fears of tariffs on importing silver (and gold). In response, traders shipped an estimated 300 tons of silver from London to New York to alleviate that squeeze. Last month, the London Bullion Market ran into some issues of its own with respect to silver

After charting the highest level of gold inflows on record in September, the flow of gold into ETFs slowed modestly in October but remained comfortably above the year-to-date average. It was the fifth straight month of net gold inflows into ETFs globally. In total, 54.9 tonnes of gold flowed into gold-backed funds last month.

Central bank gold buying hit the highest level of the year in September, with several new banks adding to their reserves. Globally, central banks officially added a net 39 tonnes of gold to their holdings in September. That was up 79 percent month-on-month and was above the 12-month average of 27 tonnes.

Silver has been on a wild roller coaster ride. Is the recent selloff a temporary correction or have we reached the end of the rally? While the supply displacement has moderated somewhat, the underlying dynamics that have been driving both silver and gold higher over the last two years remain in place.

For the second straight meeting, the Fed cut the federal funds rate by a quarter percent on Wednesday. The FOMC also announced balance sheet reduction will end December. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell tried to keep the party from heating up too much by downplaying the possibility of another cut in December.

Gold has been pounded recently and is now struggling to hold the $4,000 level. Are the bulls dead? It’s important to keep the selloff in perspective. As I put it in my podcast last week, “keep your eye on the ball.” Corrections are healthy and normal in a bull market. But a big selloff could also indicate the end of a bull run. So, where are we now?

According to the World Gold Council, the festival season started on a “positive note” with healthy demand. “Despite the pressure on gold jewelry consumption due to high prices and affordability, there has been a recent sales uptick, predominantly concentrated around wedding-related purchases and aligning with the wedding season.”