Precious Metals Analysis

Despite all the talk about DOGE and cost-cutting earlier this year, the federal government spent more in fiscal 2025 than it did the previous year and set a new spending record. However, thanks to an influx of tariff revenue, the fiscal 2025 budget deficit was slightly smaller – if you can call a $1.78 trillion deficit “small.”

In a seismic shift, Morgan Stanley CIO Michael Wilson recently came out with an investment strategy that includes a 20 percent allocation to gold. Now a Sprott executive has followed suit, telling a mainstream financial network’s audience that investors should consider shifting from the traditional 60/40 portfolio to a 60/20/20 allocation.

With gold scaling record highs on what feels like a daily basis, mainstream financial analysts are scrambling to raise their price forecasts. Goldman Sachs recently upped its 2026 price projection to $4,900. Not to be outdone, Bank of America has now raised its 2026 forecast to $5,000 an ounce.

Is Wall Street starting to embrace gold? For years, mainstream investment gurus have steered clients away from gold. But with the yellow metal gaining more than 87 percent since January 2024, it’s getting hard to ignore the yellow metal. Morgan Stanley recently came out with an investment strategy with a 20 percent allocation to gold.

Nobody in their right mind would hold their reserves in dollars. That’s the conclusion of Catalyst Funds CIO David Miller. And he’s right. Gold is up over 87 percent since January 2024 and is knocking on the door of $4,000 an ounce. But even with the rapid price surge, Miller said gold is not overpriced.

CNCB says investors should have gold as a hedge if the government shutdown persists. But they miss the real problem. That comes after the government reopens! At midnight on October 1, the feds shut the doors, turned out the lights, and went home. Well, some of them did.

Most people define inflation as rising consumer prices. Price inflation is part of the inflationary equation, but inflation also manifests in other ways, for instance, in asset inflation. Keep in mind that inflation, properly defined, isn’t about prices. It is an increase in the supply of money and credit.

You can file this under things you already knew. Price inflation is worse than the official data indicates. Based on the Consumer Price Index, price inflation is running at 2.9 percent, with core inflation at 3.1 percent. Both numbers are far above the mythical 2 percent target, but the situation is even worse for real people trying to live real lives.

I’d like to congratulate CNBC on finally noticing gold! It only had to trade above $3,700 an ounce to get the big network’s attention. While I have to give CNBC credit for finally recognizing that gold might be a good investment (after all, it’s only up 82.9 percent since January 1, 2024), I’m not particularly impressed with their advice.

The Federal Reserve cranked up the inflation machine, despite acknowledging “inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated.” The FOMC voted 11-1 to cut the federal funds rate by a quarter percent, setting the interest rate between 4 and 4.25 percent.

Want some silver? You might be able to get some with your phone, some hydrogen peroxide, and a bottle of cooking oil. Mind you, you won’t be able to use your phone ever again. But you’ll have silver! Researchers have discovered a way to recover silver from electronic waste using cooking oil.

For the third straight month, gold flowed into ETFs globally, led by North American and European funds. This continues the general trend this year. Gold inflows into ETFs through the first half of 2025 hit levels not seen since the pandemic. Year-to-date ETF gold inflows of $47 billion are the second-strongest on record

The gold bugs are right. Gold is an important asset that everybody should hold. And yet, the mainstream looks at these so-called gold bugs with derision. Let me tell you in an illustrative story. I almost didn’t get into reporting and writing about precious metals because I didn’t want people to think I was some kind of weirdo.

With the price of silver up 25 percent through the first six months of 2025, investment demand has surged. However, U.S. investors have not hopped on the bandwagon – yet. The increase in investment demand is reflected by a big jump in ETF silver holdings. Through the first six months of the year, 95 million ounces…